Comment is free: July 2008 Archives

It's been a rough few weeks for Argentine President Cristina Fernández; I've discussed her misfortunes - and their impact on her husband's hopes of returning to office - in my latest column for Comment is free:

The problems started when Fernández decreed an increase in export levies on agricultural produce. That prompted mass protests from outraged farmers and gave Argentina's formerly directionless opposition a cause to rally around. It also angered both the urban middle classes and the Kirchners' supporters in Congress, who took umbrage at the president's failure to even go through the motions of consulting lawmakers on the new taxes. Most troubling of all, Fernández found herself under fire from her own vice-president, Julio Cobos, who slipped easily into the role of Lex Luthor to the Kirchners' Superman. Appointed by Fernández to negotiate with the farm lobby, Cobos instead began to publicly question his boss's judgment, culminating in an open letter asking her to submit her proposals to Congress for ratification.

Ultimately, Fernández found herself unable to resist her underling's arm-twisting, and she asked lawmakers to support her tax plan. That ought to have been a formality, given the Peronists' dominance in Congress. Even there, though, Fernández's superpowers failed her. Despite her best efforts, the tax bill became utterly deadlocked in the Senate, despite the Peronists' two-thirds majority. Finally, after 17 hours of debate failed to break the stalemate, vice-president Cobos cast a dramatic tie-breaking vote against his own boss, shooting down the tax reform once and for all.

Read more here.

According to the CW, Barack Obama ought to be struggling to win over America's Hispanic voters. In fact, he seems to be dominating the Latino demographic with relative ease - it's his opponent who's struggling to make up ground. I've posted my take over at Comment is free:

Many election watchers believe McCain still has a chance to claw back Latino support. After all, the argument goes, Hispanics are a historically volatile voting bloc and might well swing back toward McCain in the months ahead. It's true that about 40% of Latinos backed Bush in 2004; it's true, too, that Hispanic support helped steer Democrats to victory in the 2006 midterms. But while those shifts help perpetuate the myth that Latinos are swing voters, the truth is that they change their allegiance no more frequently than other demographic groups. Most Latinos - with the exception of Florida's strategically important Cuban-American population - remain true-blue Democrats and simply aren't in the market for another GOP president.

It won't help that McCain's strategy for winning over Hispanics rests on puffing his track record on immigration reform, while raising concerns about Obama's trustworthiness on the issue. That's a risky gambit. McCain's trite reminders that even immigrants with Hispanic names "are God's children" might help placate his conservative base, but they won't do much for his support among Latino voters, barely a quarter of whom were born outside the US. Besides, polls consistently show that Hispanic voters - who are, by definition, already US citizens - care far less about immigration than about bread-and-butter issues like the economy and healthcare.

More here.

The rescue of Ingrid Betancourt was good news for Colombians - especially their president, Álvaro Uribe - but rather less so for Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez, who's been having a rather terrible few months. I've taken a look at his prospects for staging a comeback in my latest Comment is free column:

Chávez still has a few punches left to throw. He's fortunate that Colombia's President Uribe appears minded to be magnanimous in victory, perhaps due to his country's extensive trade ties with Venezuela. The two leaders meet today to discuss border security, giving Chávez a chance to belatedly bury the hatchet and perhaps score an invitation to resume negotiations for the release of the Farc's remaining hostages, or even the rebel army's disarmament. The latter is a long shot, of course, but if Chávez can play even a bit part in ending the Colombian conflict, he could repair much of the damage he's done to his international standing.

Back home, Chávez seems to be pinning his party's electoral hopes on a dirty-tricks campaign. Last month, the national comptroller blacklisted nearly 400 public officials - mostly opposition politicians - and barred them from standing in the coming elections, ostensibly because of past administrative or legal offences. Opposition leaders have protested the decision, calling it unconstitutional and undemocratic, and noting that many of the alleged offences are disputed and were never tested in court. They may well be right, but with electoral officials and the supreme court largely in Chávez's pocket, they're unlikely to be able to reverse the ruling before the August deadline for candidate registration.

The blacklist is straight out of Chávez's usual playbook, a carefully judged low blow, not quite blatant or sweeping enough to make a travesty of the election itself, but guaranteed to boost Chávez's allies' electoral prospects while reducing his opponents to unappealingly frothy fits of red-faced rage. That may or may not be enough to allow him to avert disaster in the coming elections. Either way, it's a sign that the Venezuelan leader still has plenty of life left in him. Chávez may be on the ropes, but if his opponents want to capitalise on his recent tribulations, they're going to have a fight on their hands.

Read more here.