Hugo Chávez on the ropes

The rescue of Ingrid Betancourt was good news for Colombians - especially their president, Álvaro Uribe - but rather less so for Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez, who's been having a rather terrible few months. I've taken a look at his prospects for staging a comeback in my latest Comment is free column:

Chávez still has a few punches left to throw. He's fortunate that Colombia's President Uribe appears minded to be magnanimous in victory, perhaps due to his country's extensive trade ties with Venezuela. The two leaders meet today to discuss border security, giving Chávez a chance to belatedly bury the hatchet and perhaps score an invitation to resume negotiations for the release of the Farc's remaining hostages, or even the rebel army's disarmament. The latter is a long shot, of course, but if Chávez can play even a bit part in ending the Colombian conflict, he could repair much of the damage he's done to his international standing.

Back home, Chávez seems to be pinning his party's electoral hopes on a dirty-tricks campaign. Last month, the national comptroller blacklisted nearly 400 public officials - mostly opposition politicians - and barred them from standing in the coming elections, ostensibly because of past administrative or legal offences. Opposition leaders have protested the decision, calling it unconstitutional and undemocratic, and noting that many of the alleged offences are disputed and were never tested in court. They may well be right, but with electoral officials and the supreme court largely in Chávez's pocket, they're unlikely to be able to reverse the ruling before the August deadline for candidate registration.

The blacklist is straight out of Chávez's usual playbook, a carefully judged low blow, not quite blatant or sweeping enough to make a travesty of the election itself, but guaranteed to boost Chávez's allies' electoral prospects while reducing his opponents to unappealingly frothy fits of red-faced rage. That may or may not be enough to allow him to avert disaster in the coming elections. Either way, it's a sign that the Venezuelan leader still has plenty of life left in him. Chávez may be on the ropes, but if his opponents want to capitalise on his recent tribulations, they're going to have a fight on their hands.

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