With the Pennsylvania primary just a month away, Hillary Clinton has an imposing lead in the polls. Still, the game isn't over yet - I've written a piece for Comment is free asking whether Barack Obama still has time to turn things around:
Clinton's focus on running up a big popular-vote win in Pennsylvania has so far led both candidates to invest most of their energy in voter registration, scrambling to sign up likely supporters ahead of this week's deadline. Now, though, the gears are grinding as both campaigns switch tack to begin what will essentially be a month-long get-out-the-vote drive. From here on, both candidates are likely to focus on energising their base, looking to boost turnout in densely populated areas - even those where the math makes it unlikely that extra votes will translate into extra delegates ...
With the voter-registration dash out of the way, Obama can now switch to what he does best: introducing himself to the electorate. He's already rolled out a number of new TV spots in the Philadelphia media market, which covers both his core urban supporters and the crucial suburban swing vote, and has embarked on an Iowa-style bus tour of the ground between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. He's still heading for almost certain defeat in the Keystone State - but if he can woo enough well-heeled suburbanites along the way, he should be able to keep Clinton's margin of victory down to a manageable level.
More here.
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